| Tuesday, March 1, 2011 January 2011 Market Conditionsby Mark Levenson on Tue, Mar, 1, 2011 10:05 PM Categories: Campo Real Estate, Chula Vista Real Estate, East County, Inland South, Marketing, Metro, Real Estate, San Diego, San Diego Real Estate, South Bay, Spring Valley Real EstateThe January 2011 Market Statistics are out
What will the housing market be like in 2011? Will it advance on positive economic news or will it retreat due to continued high unemployment? One thing is certain – housing in 2011 will be a unique market, the first to recover from a recession without a significant growth in jobs or incomes.
2011: A Period of Stabilization - Current trends show that the return to a more active sales environment will be gradual, and that adjustments must be made before any real growth can be experienced. We believe that the existing home sales market will stabilize throughout 2011.
Mortgage Interest Rates
During 2010, the impact of mortgage rates falling to historic lows continued to drive refinance activity above typical levels. By January 2011, interest rates approached the 5% range on a 30-year conventional loan, up from all-time lows of 4.2% in October 2010.
These historically low rates provided critical traction to the housing market, and will continue to benefit home buyers in 2011. The combination of lower prices and low interest rates has created unprecedented affordability conditions, which is an important reason housing sales are starting to grow again, according to the National Association of Realtors. The trade organization’s December housing report noted transactions were up 5.6% over November, prices up 0.4% over the previous year, and supplies down to 9.5 months vs. 10.5 months in November.
To put affordability another way, in 2007, at the height of the housing market, it took 21.7% of median family income to buy a home. The median existing single-family home was $217,900, mortgage rates were 6.52%, and households needed $61,173 to buy the median home.
In October 2010, housing prices were 30% lower, interest rates only 4.62%, and the median family income was higher by almost $1,000, meaning it only took 13.6% of household income to buy a home in Q3 2010. With interest rates expected to stay in the 4% to mid 5% range – which will continue to drive affordability – more buyers may enter the market in 2011. Distressed inventories must be absorbed before real growth in sales and prices can occur.
Wednesday, December 8, 2010 November Market Updateby Mark Levenson on Wed, Dec, 8, 2010 10:08 PM Categories: Campo Real Estate, Chula Vista Real Estate, East County, Inland South, Marketing, Metro, Real Estate, San Diego, San Diego Real Estate, South Bay, Spring Valley Real EstateThis just in
 " Economists see greater demand ahead The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) expects both the economy and the employment picture to improve in 2011 and 2012. Says NAHB Chief Economist DavidCrowe, “Consumer uncertainty about the economy, the poor job market and the large number of foreclosed properties for sale continue to be a drag on housing. However, favorable home buying conditions should help spur additional demand as the job market gradually improves later this year. ”
California and Southern California
Prices are up 4.4% year-over-year, the tenth consecutive increase, following 27 months of pricing declines. Prices peaked at $484,000 in early 2007, and bottomed at $221,000 in April 2009.
Of the homes that sold in August, 35.9% were foreclosures, down from 42.8% a year ago, and well down from the 58.5% peak in February 2009.
SAN DIEGO COUNTY
Recent news for the housing market is positive - from record low mortgage interest rates to rising sales.
Despite recent price gains, the affordability of California housing is astonishing when viewed through the filter of inflation. DataQuick reports that the typical mortgage payment in August was $1,077, down from $1093 in August 2009, largely thanks to improved mortgage interest rates. That’s 59.5% below the peak set in June 2006 and 50.1% below the previous peak set in the spring of 1989. Indicators of market distress continue to move in different directions. Foreclosure is off its recent peaks, but remains high by historical standards. Financing with multiple mortgages is low, down payment sizes are stable, and cash and non-owner-occupied buying are up, MDA DataQuick reported.
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